West Ham Analysis

It wasn’t too long ago that Westham were relegated to the Championship division. It happens. Sometimes you hit a rut, and you can’t get out. It happened to Westham, but they got back into the PL. Not every team has been so fortunate. Leeds for example, cannot seem to break back into the PL. Portsmouth has been trying to get relegated into a league of its own.

But Westham made it back, and finished last season right smack midtable. I don’t know if they are poised to improve on their placement from last season, but they did start the right way in beating newly promoted Cardiff. Westham could maybe beat a top team here and there, but I don’t expect them to. I do expect them to beat teams that are weaker than them.

The Hammers made a smart move in bringing in Joe Cole, who was on target last weekend against Cardiff. He’s a value steal at his price. Maybe his knees aren’t what they used to be 7 years ago, but he still has the same tenacity. He looks like he’s still in shape.

Kevin Nolan is another solid purchase. As mentioned before, this guy made Andy Carroll look good at Newcastle. He makes people better players, and he’s a solid player himself. Most importantly, he scores goals.

Jarvis is now playing at Westham, and at 5.5 he could very well raise in value. He’s a reliable player. Last season wasn’t his best, but over the years he’s had 477pts over 4 years, with last year being his bad year at 92pts. He could well return to over 120pts this season.

Stewart Downing may cut into the points for these guys, but for right now, those are the main players from Westham that I like.

Gameweek 1 – Thoughts on % of Teams Selected By

Goalkeepers £ TSB
Mignolet LIV 5.5 29.9
Cech CHE 6.5 17
Davis SOU 4.0 15.9

Mignolet had a great start to the season, but he is playing for a team that will probably suffer the same as it did last season.

Cech is playing two games in week one, so that’s why people are picking him early on. But I don’t think this will help his value for resale, since he’s already at a high level for goalkeepers.

Davis, like Mignolet, had a good first game. At 4£, he could be a steal. He’s protected by Lovren, who I love.

Defenders £ TSB
Ivanovic CHE 6.5 28.4
Mertesacker ARS 5.5 24.6
Baines EVE 7.5 24.5
Zabaleta MCI 6.0 22.4
Baker AVL 4.0 19.1
Luiz CHE 6.5 18.5
Jagielka EVE 5.5 17.9
Garrido NOR 4.5 15.7
Johnson LIV 6.0 14.2
Evra MUN 6.5 13.8
Williams SWA 5.0 13.6
Whittaker NOR 4.0 13.4

Most people are going to select Baines, Zabaleta, Luiz and Ivanovic because they are offensive.

Mertesacker is accident prone and he plays for a weak defence. I have him selected, but it’s a mistake. He seems like such a value at 5.5£ – chances are he will go to 5.4 in the next two weeks.

Evra could see his value drop if Man Utd pick up Baines.

14.2% of owners selected Glen Johnson – probably because 100% of them are Liverpool supporters.

Midfielders £ TSB
Hazard CHE 9.5 36.7
Coutinho LIV 9.0 23
Mata CHE 10.5 20.7
Michu SWA 9.0 19.2
Snodgrass NOR 6.5 15.3
Walcott ARS 9.5 14.9
Nolan WHU 7.0 14.7
Fellaini EVE 8.5 12.9

Most of the top selected midfielders speak for themselves. Nolan continues to be very productive for points, and cheap. I love what he brings to a team. He was great for Newcastle and he was the reason that Liverpool played the fools over the Andy Carroll deal; he made Carroll look like a legitimate footballer.

Snodgrass is decent, but I feel that when Pilkington is back, he’ll be the best player on Norwich.

Fellaini at 8.5 is a good deal. Question for owners is whether the new manager Martinez can get the same production out of his players that Moyes got.

Forwards £ TSB
Van Persie MUN 14.0 46.2
Benteke AVL 9.0 24.9
Lambert SOU 7.5 21.6
Lukaku CHE 8.0 18.8
Anelka WBA 5.5 17.7
Soldado TOT 9.5 16.3
Sturridge LIV 9.0 14.3

46.2% of the owners in the fantasy league are going silly bollocks. RVP will get points, but where are the owners cutting corners? RVP may get 10 points in a game – maybe more, but they could have spread that value out and have 3 players that score 5-7 points regularly. It could pay off, but RVP just seems unnecessary at this stage.

The fact that Benteke, Lambert, Lukaku, Anelka, Soldado, and Sturridge round up the rest of the top owned strikers tells me that owners get it. We don’t see a lot of owners with Man City players because you never know if those players will play. But you can bank on any of these top owned strikers to touch the pitch each game week, and that is more productive than the gamble of a player who might score two striker goals, which aren’t even that valuable.

Arbitragedy – Loading Up High Priced Players Early Is For Rookies

Gameweek 1 of the Premier League season is wrapping up, with the final bumper game tomorrow between Chelsea and Aston Villa. No big surprises. Things are moving the same way that last season ended. Rickie Lambert still scoring. Chelsea looking solid. RVP surgical on target. You could have simply imported your old team from last season and still got a lot of points. But chances are most of those players cost too much now (except Lambert).

The dream squad of Hart, Krul, Zabaleta, Baines, Vertonghen, Kompany, Luiz, Bale, Mata, Hazard, Cazorla, Michu, RVP, Aguerro, and Suarez is impossible to purchase (it would cost over 130 in fantasy monies).

So as we start the season, we look at the price of players who are already high. RVP is 14 right now. He can only go down. And there’s a lot of room to go down for him. You may love RVP, but he’s going to be poison for your team in the long run unless he’s putting in hattricks regularly.

What about Leighton Baines? I love him as a player. But his price is pretty high. Chances are, he’s going to make a good amount of points. But he has pretty much maxed out his value. He could go down, but not much further up.

In the long run, you want a team that on paper is worth more than 100£ – and you get that by buying players who are undervalued, and then selling them when they peak.

Current Squad:

Krul £5.0
Stekelenburg £5.0
Lovren £5.0
Zabaleta £6.0
Mertesacker £5.5
Ivanovic £6.5
Baker £4.0
Hazard £9.5
Wanyama £5.0
Mata £10.5
Dembele £5.5
Cole £5.5
Anelka £5.5
Benteke £9.0
Altidore £7.0
Productive players with nowhere to go but down:
Ivanovic
Mata
Players who could rise, but probably won’t rise enough to make a big profit:
Hazard
Mertesacker
Zabaleta
Anelka
Altidore
Krul
Steks
Players I expect to rise:
Lovren – the best defender on Lyon last season, somehow got bought by the Saints.
Benteke – Should be over 10
Baker – 4 is crazy low for a starter. He’ll probably move to 5.2 by season’s end.
Wanyama – Another very low cost starter, but with more talent.